Course Name: Financial Time Series Analysis for Trading, Section No: 15, Unit No: 6, Unit type: Notebook
The notebooks says we fit an MA(1) and obtain the following fitted results:
π = -0.21 π_1 = 0.04
However, this does not correspond to the output of the code, which is:
ma.L1 0.10
sigma2 0.95
Also, in the code, we see the following model:
ARIMA(order = (0,1,1))
That is not an MA(1) on y_t. That is an ARIMA(0,1,1):
(1 β L) y_t = Ξ΅_t + ΞΈβ Ξ΅_{tβ1}
Which means:
Ξy_t = Ξ΅_t + ΞΈβ Ξ΅_{tβ1}
So the MA part applies to first differences, not to levels.
Questions:
- How are the fitted results π = -0.21 π_1 = 0.04 obtained
- What is the correct model specification of the MA(1), compared to the ARIMA(order = (0,1,1))?